# Why is our forecast always wrong, and what actually fixes it?

Because stage and close date are rep-authored opinions with no artifact behind them. Fix it by making progression artifact-driven — the document drives the stage — and by measuring slip: how many times a deal's close date has moved is a better predictor than the stage it sits in.

Add pipeline coverage and stage-aged views so a deal that has sat in negotiation for three cycles is visible without anyone having to ask. In consumption businesses the deeper fix is structural: forecasting usage is a data-science job, not a seller's, because reps cannot predict how customers will consume.

## Sources

- **Method** — [Quote to Cash playbook — The document drives the stage](https://www.leanscale.team/knowledge/playbooks/quote-to-cash-playbook/)
- **Opinion** — [Why Your Forecast Is Broken](https://www.leanscale.team/knowledge/podcast/why-your-forecast-is-broken/)
- **Opinion** — [Pipeline Is a Vanity Metric](https://www.leanscale.team/knowledge/podcast/guy-rubin-ebsta-benchmark-report/)

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Cluster: Stages · https://www.leanscale.team/knowledge/answers/why-forecast-inaccurate/